Anyone who has spent time studying Theory of Constraints knows that the idea of forecasting and extrapolation is an anathema to being smart about making decisions.
Here are a pair of related items on Goldratt's views of the current economic issues, particularly in relation to a manufacturer who was worried about their future in light of all the dire economic news.
- The Power of Cause and Effect (pdf) article from January 2009.
- And here is a video of Goldratt discussing the findings described in the article
Suffice to say, a little research showed that the standard news media weren't a good source of accurate information. Goldratt goes through the process of digging up useful information from which this company could make sensible decisions.