ComputerWorld has an interview with Dan Lovallo, based on his recent article (pay to play) in Harvard Business Review on project management in IT.
Essentially, the interview tells IT project managers the same thing any other project manager should hear: use benchmarks to help plan projects and predict their success. If it is something you do frequently, use that information the next time you run a project. If it is something new (to your company), go to other companies / consultants and get good data.
And, remember, all projects have components that have been done before, no matter how novel they appear to the local organization. Find and use that information to help you with your project.